Tier 2 · Fragile / Concentrated · Observe Only — Do NOT trade live yet

Top 10 Fragile Strategies (Combined)

The 93 non-robust passing strategies were grouped by their filter key, the same way the robust set was deduped. Of 61 distinct combined fragile groups, the top 10 by max member final-score are shown. These strategies pass the literal trade-level rules but have HIGH intra-market trade concentration.

Combined Groups (top)
10
from 61 distinct fragile groups
Matched Trades (sum)
54,659
across all sides
Exact Net Profit (sum)
$1,419,873
on $100 per trade · backtest
Live trade?
Not yet
Paper / observe only
Common values across these 10 fragile strategies — these values are identical across every row in the table below, so they have been pulled out to keep the comparison columns short.
Position size assumption
$100 per trade
Exit rule
Hold to 300s expiry (no early sell)
One-trade-per-market rule
Yes — only the first matching trade per market is taken
Min notional
$0+
Future-data leakage check
PASS — entry uses only trade events at or before t
Live-execution check
PASS — bot can read public trade tape live
Max loss streak
0 losses
Drawdown
$0
Losing trades
0
Gross loss
$0.00
Breakeven trades
0
Win rate (combined)
100.00%

Fragile Comparison Table

Only the columns that vary across strategies are shown. Common values (above) are pulled out to keep rows compact. Scroll horizontally on small screens; the first column stays sticky.

# Combined name Applies to Entry time Price range Min notional Whale Markets Trades Net profit Avg / trade Best 10-trd batch Worst 10-trd batch Min 10-mkt batch Concentration Why fragile Worth observing? Bot entry rule
F1
Group F1
sfs [30,60) · price [0.70,0.75)
 Down only sfs [30,60) sec [0.70, 0.75) $0+ Any 60 3,410 $131,314 $38.51 $429 $350 $399 HIGH high trade clustering (57 t/mkt); only 60 markets; no notional gate No (paper only) BUY Down at [0.70,0.75) in sfs [30,60), n≥$0; hold 300s
F2
Group F2
sfs [60,90) · price [0.75,0.80) · whale
 Up only sfs [60,90) sec [0.75, 0.80) $0+ Top-50 153 2,105 $62,043 $29.47 $333 $265 $289 MED only 153 markets; no notional gate Caution BUY Up at [0.75,0.80) in sfs [60,90), n≥$0, whale; hold 300s
F3
Group F3
sfs [30,60) · price [0.70,0.80)
 Down only sfs [30,60) sec [0.70, 0.80) $0+ Any 77 7,329 $248,110 $33.85 $429 $266 $339 HIGH high trade clustering (95 t/mkt); only 77 markets; no notional gate No (paper only) BUY Down at [0.70,0.80) in sfs [30,60), n≥$0; hold 300s
F4
Group F4
sfs [0,60) · price [0.70,0.80) · whale
 Down only sfs [0,60) sec [0.70, 0.80) $0+ Top-50 68 1,456 $49,773 $34.18 $429 $266 $361 HIGH high trade clustering (21 t/mkt); only 68 markets; no notional gate Caution BUY Down at [0.70,0.80) in sfs [0,60), n≥$0, whale; hold 300s
F5
Group F5
sfs [30,60) · price [0.70,0.80) · whale
 Down only sfs [30,60) sec [0.70, 0.80) $0+ Top-50 67 1,296 $44,235 $34.13 $429 $266 $352 HIGH high trade clustering (19 t/mkt); only 67 markets; no notional gate Caution BUY Down at [0.70,0.80) in sfs [30,60), n≥$0, whale; hold 300s
F6
Group F6
sfs [30,60) · price [0.75,0.80)
 Down only sfs [30,60) sec [0.75, 0.80) $0+ Any 56 3,919 $116,797 $29.80 $333 $266 $305 HIGH high trade clustering (70 t/mkt); only 56 markets; no notional gate No (paper only) BUY Down at [0.75,0.80) in sfs [30,60), n≥$0; hold 300s
F7
Group F7
sfs [90,120) · price [0.80,0.85) · whale
 Down only sfs [90,120) sec [0.80, 0.85) $0+ Top-50 248 4,534 $99,378 $21.92 $250 $189 $211 HIGH high trade clustering (18 t/mkt); no notional gate Caution BUY Down at [0.80,0.85) in sfs [90,120), n≥$0, whale; hold 300s
F8
Group F8
sfs [0,90) · price [0.80,0.85) · whale
 Up only sfs [0,90) sec [0.80, 0.85) $0+ Top-50 150 3,056 $66,835 $21.87 $250 $190 $219 HIGH high trade clustering (20 t/mkt); only 150 markets; no notional gate Caution BUY Up at [0.80,0.85) in sfs [0,90), n≥$0, whale; hold 300s
F9
Group F9
sfs [60,90) · price [0.80,0.85) · whale
 Up only sfs [60,90) sec [0.80, 0.85) $0+ Top-50 142 2,360 $51,694 $21.90 $250 $190 $219 HIGH high trade clustering (17 t/mkt); only 142 markets; no notional gate Caution BUY Up at [0.80,0.85) in sfs [60,90), n≥$0, whale; hold 300s
F10
Group F10
sfs [90,120) · price [0.80,0.85)
 Down only sfs [90,120) sec [0.80, 0.85) $0+ Any 279 25,194 $549,695 $21.82 $250 $176 $216 HIGH high trade clustering (90 t/mkt); no notional gate No (paper only) BUY Down at [0.80,0.85) in sfs [90,120), n≥$0; hold 300s

Full Strategy Detail Cards (click to expand)

Each card shows the full spec grid, exact PnL block (direct SQL sum of every matched trade), per-side breakdown, Bot Entry / Exit / Skip / Logging rules, and the fragility caveats. Cards are collapsed by default.

FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F1 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Down @ [0.70,0.75) sfs[30,60) n≥$0 ▾
BUY Down when a public BUY trade hits [0.70,0.75) inside seconds [30,60), notional ≥ $0; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Down: #1 final · #52 PF · #52 WR · #52 loss · #1 best10 · #86 cons
DownSide(s) — bot fires on either
[30, 60) secEntry time window
[0.70, 0.75)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Any walletWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
60Matched markets
3,410Matched trades
56.83Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$428.6Best 10-trade batch
$349.5Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
HIGH (56.8 t/mkt)Concentration risk
14/16Consistency days
$399Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
3,410Matched trades
3,410Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$131,313.55Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$131,313.55Net profit
$38.5084Avg net / trade
$38.5084Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Down S2a477eb89e 3,410 3,410 0 $131,313.55 $0.00 $131,313.55 $38.5084
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 3,410 trades cluster into only 60 markets (~57 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 60, not 3,410.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Down, price in [0.70, 0.75), seconds_from_start in [30, 60), trade_notional ≥ $0 — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.70,0.75) is hit only AFTER sfs=60s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.
FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F2 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Up @ [0.75,0.80) sfs[60,90) n≥$0 WHALE ▾
BUY Up when a public BUY trade hits [0.75,0.80) inside seconds [60,90), notional ≥ $0 WHALE-only; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Up: #2 final · #8 PF · #8 WR · #8 loss · #7 best10 · #1 cons
UpSide(s) — bot fires on either
[60, 90) secEntry time window
[0.75, 0.80)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Top-50 wallet onlyWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
153Matched markets
2,105Matched trades
13.76Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$333.3Best 10-trade batch
$264.9Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
MED (13.8 t/mkt)Concentration risk
16/16Consistency days
$289Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
2,105Matched trades
2,105Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$62,043.41Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$62,043.41Net profit
$29.4743Avg net / trade
$29.4743Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Up Sf52f6e0cb2 2,105 2,105 0 $62,043.41 $0.00 $62,043.41 $29.4743
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 2,105 trades cluster into only 153 markets (~14 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 153, not 2,105.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Up, price in [0.75, 0.80), seconds_from_start in [60, 90), trade_notional ≥ $0 AND the trade is by a top-50 wallet — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.75,0.80) is hit only AFTER sfs=90s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.
FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F3 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Down @ [0.70,0.80) sfs[30,60) n≥$0 ▾
BUY Down when a public BUY trade hits [0.70,0.80) inside seconds [30,60), notional ≥ $0; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Down: #3 final · #56 PF · #56 WR · #56 loss · #2 best10 · #89 cons
DownSide(s) — bot fires on either
[30, 60) secEntry time window
[0.70, 0.80)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Any walletWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
77Matched markets
7,329Matched trades
95.18Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$428.6Best 10-trade batch
$265.6Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
HIGH (95.2 t/mkt)Concentration risk
14/16Consistency days
$339Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
7,329Matched trades
7,329Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$248,110.36Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$248,110.36Net profit
$33.8532Avg net / trade
$33.8532Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Down S3870baefa2 7,329 7,329 0 $248,110.36 $0.00 $248,110.36 $33.8532
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 7,329 trades cluster into only 77 markets (~95 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 77, not 7,329.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Down, price in [0.70, 0.80), seconds_from_start in [30, 60), trade_notional ≥ $0 — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.70,0.80) is hit only AFTER sfs=60s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.
FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F4 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Down @ [0.70,0.80) sfs[0,60) n≥$0 WHALE ▾
BUY Down when a public BUY trade hits [0.70,0.80) inside seconds [0,60), notional ≥ $0 WHALE-only; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Down: #4 final · #74 PF · #74 WR · #74 loss · #5 best10 · #88 cons
DownSide(s) — bot fires on either
[0, 60) secEntry time window
[0.70, 0.80)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Top-50 wallet onlyWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
68Matched markets
1,456Matched trades
21.41Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$428.6Best 10-trade batch
$265.8Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
HIGH (21.4 t/mkt)Concentration risk
14/16Consistency days
$361Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
1,456Matched trades
1,456Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$49,773.32Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$49,773.32Net profit
$34.1850Avg net / trade
$34.1850Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Down S4265ec65bb 1,456 1,456 0 $49,773.32 $0.00 $49,773.32 $34.1850
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 1,456 trades cluster into only 68 markets (~21 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 68, not 1,456.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Down, price in [0.70, 0.80), seconds_from_start in [0, 60), trade_notional ≥ $0 AND the trade is by a top-50 wallet — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.70,0.80) is hit only AFTER sfs=60s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.
FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F5 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Down @ [0.70,0.80) sfs[30,60) n≥$0 WHALE ▾
BUY Down when a public BUY trade hits [0.70,0.80) inside seconds [30,60), notional ≥ $0 WHALE-only; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Down: #5 final · #57 PF · #57 WR · #57 loss · #3 best10 · #87 cons
DownSide(s) — bot fires on either
[30, 60) secEntry time window
[0.70, 0.80)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Top-50 wallet onlyWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
67Matched markets
1,296Matched trades
19.34Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$428.6Best 10-trade batch
$265.8Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
HIGH (19.3 t/mkt)Concentration risk
14/16Consistency days
$352Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
1,296Matched trades
1,296Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$44,234.57Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$44,234.57Net profit
$34.1316Avg net / trade
$34.1316Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Down Sefad729d20 1,296 1,296 0 $44,234.57 $0.00 $44,234.57 $34.1316
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 1,296 trades cluster into only 67 markets (~19 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 67, not 1,296.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Down, price in [0.70, 0.80), seconds_from_start in [30, 60), trade_notional ≥ $0 AND the trade is by a top-50 wallet — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.70,0.80) is hit only AFTER sfs=60s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.
FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F6 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Down @ [0.75,0.80) sfs[30,60) n≥$0 ▾
BUY Down when a public BUY trade hits [0.75,0.80) inside seconds [30,60), notional ≥ $0; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Down: #6 final · #53 PF · #53 WR · #53 loss · #8 best10 · #91 cons
DownSide(s) — bot fires on either
[30, 60) secEntry time window
[0.75, 0.80)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Any walletWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
56Matched markets
3,919Matched trades
69.98Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$333.3Best 10-trade batch
$265.8Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
HIGH (70.0 t/mkt)Concentration risk
13/16Consistency days
$305Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
3,919Matched trades
3,919Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$116,796.81Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$116,796.81Net profit
$29.8027Avg net / trade
$29.8027Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Down S6d30f2ea24 3,919 3,919 0 $116,796.81 $0.00 $116,796.81 $29.8027
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 3,919 trades cluster into only 56 markets (~70 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 56, not 3,919.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Down, price in [0.75, 0.80), seconds_from_start in [30, 60), trade_notional ≥ $0 — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.75,0.80) is hit only AFTER sfs=60s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.
FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F7 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Down @ [0.80,0.85) sfs[90,120) n≥$0 WHALE ▾
BUY Down when a public BUY trade hits [0.80,0.85) inside seconds [90,120), notional ≥ $0 WHALE-only; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Down: #7 final · #64 PF · #64 WR · #64 loss · #29 best10 · #6 cons
DownSide(s) — bot fires on either
[90, 120) secEntry time window
[0.80, 0.85)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Top-50 wallet onlyWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
248Matched markets
4,534Matched trades
18.28Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$250.0Best 10-trade batch
$189.1Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
HIGH (18.3 t/mkt)Concentration risk
16/16Consistency days
$211Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
4,534Matched trades
4,534Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$99,377.57Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$99,377.57Net profit
$21.9183Avg net / trade
$21.9183Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Down S8c83a5b79b 4,534 4,534 0 $99,377.57 $0.00 $99,377.57 $21.9183
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 4,534 trades cluster into only 248 markets (~18 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 248, not 4,534.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Down, price in [0.80, 0.85), seconds_from_start in [90, 120), trade_notional ≥ $0 AND the trade is by a top-50 wallet — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.80,0.85) is hit only AFTER sfs=120s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.
FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F8 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Up @ [0.80,0.85) sfs[0,90) n≥$0 WHALE ▾
BUY Up when a public BUY trade hits [0.80,0.85) inside seconds [0,90), notional ≥ $0 WHALE-only; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Up: #8 final · #37 PF · #37 WR · #37 loss · #23 best10 · #5 cons
UpSide(s) — bot fires on either
[0, 90) secEntry time window
[0.80, 0.85)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Top-50 wallet onlyWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
150Matched markets
3,056Matched trades
20.37Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$250.0Best 10-trade batch
$190.5Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
HIGH (20.4 t/mkt)Concentration risk
16/16Consistency days
$219Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
3,056Matched trades
3,056Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$66,834.97Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$66,834.97Net profit
$21.8701Avg net / trade
$21.8701Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Up Se852a5a3b5 3,056 3,056 0 $66,834.97 $0.00 $66,834.97 $21.8701
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 3,056 trades cluster into only 150 markets (~20 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 150, not 3,056.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Up, price in [0.80, 0.85), seconds_from_start in [0, 90), trade_notional ≥ $0 AND the trade is by a top-50 wallet — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.80,0.85) is hit only AFTER sfs=90s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.
FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F9 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Up @ [0.80,0.85) sfs[60,90) n≥$0 WHALE ▾
BUY Up when a public BUY trade hits [0.80,0.85) inside seconds [60,90), notional ≥ $0 WHALE-only; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Up: #9 final · #10 PF · #10 WR · #10 loss · #15 best10 · #4 cons
UpSide(s) — bot fires on either
[60, 90) secEntry time window
[0.80, 0.85)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Top-50 wallet onlyWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
142Matched markets
2,360Matched trades
16.62Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$250.0Best 10-trade batch
$190.5Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
HIGH (16.6 t/mkt)Concentration risk
16/16Consistency days
$219Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
2,360Matched trades
2,360Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$51,693.78Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$51,693.78Net profit
$21.9041Avg net / trade
$21.9041Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Up Sdd61ac4a94 2,360 2,360 0 $51,693.78 $0.00 $51,693.78 $21.9041
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 2,360 trades cluster into only 142 markets (~17 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 142, not 2,360.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Up, price in [0.80, 0.85), seconds_from_start in [60, 90), trade_notional ≥ $0 AND the trade is by a top-50 wallet — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.80,0.85) is hit only AFTER sfs=90s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.
FRAGILE · OBSERVE-ONLY Group F10 Priority: Paper-trade only
BUY Down @ [0.80,0.85) sfs[90,120) n≥$0 ▾
BUY Down when a public BUY trade hits [0.80,0.85) inside seconds [90,120), notional ≥ $0; place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side+price; hold to 300s expiry.
Down: #12 final · #63 PF · #63 WR · #63 loss · #28 best10 · #10 cons
DownSide(s) — bot fires on either
[90, 120) secEntry time window
[0.80, 0.85)Entry price band
$0+Min trade notional
Any walletWhale gate
Hold to 300s expiryExit rule
279Matched markets
25,194Matched trades
90.30Trades per market
100.00%Win rate (combined)
1000000000000000000.00Profit factor (max side)
$250.0Best 10-trade batch
$176.5Worst 10-trade batch
0 lossesMax loss streak
$0Drawdown ($)
HIGH (90.3 t/mkt)Concentration risk
16/16Consistency days
$216Min 10-MARKET batch
EXACT BACKTEST PROFIT ON $100 PER TRADE (direct SQL sum of every matched trade — not approximated)
25,194Matched trades
25,194Winning trades
0Losing trades
0Breakeven trades
$549,694.70Gross profit
$0.00Gross loss
$549,694.70Net profit
$21.8185Avg net / trade
$21.8185Avg / winner
$0.0000Avg / loser
Hinglish: Exact Total Net Profit = Database me is strategy ke andar jitne matched trades mile, un sab trades ka actual backtest PnL add karke final profit/loss nikala gaya. Ye approximate nahi hai.

Per-side breakdown

SideStrategy IDMatchedWinsLosses Gross ProfitGross LossNetAvg / Trade
Down S195cb390cc 25,194 25,194 0 $549,694.70 $0.00 $549,694.70 $21.8185
Why this strategy is good: Strategy passes every literal trade-level CLAUDE_AGENT_TASK gate: 10-trade batch ≥ $30, ≥ 1,000 trades, ≥ 5 profitable days, and 100.00% win rate looks great.
What is not perfect: Concentration risk is HIGH: 25,194 trades cluster into only 279 markets (~90 t/mkt). Effective independent sample size = 279, not 25,194.
Watch carefully: Long quiet periods followed by 20+ correlated entries in one trending market.
Bot Entry Rule:
When a public BUY trade appears with side Down, price in [0.80, 0.85), seconds_from_start in [90, 120), trade_notional ≥ $0 — place ONE $1-$2 BUY for the same side at the same price.
Bot Exit Rule:
Hold to 300s market resolution (no early sell, no stop-loss, no take-profit ladder).
Bot Skip Rule:
Skip if (1) the price band [0.80,0.85) is hit only AFTER sfs=120s, (2) the bot has already entered this market for this strategy (one entry per market), (3) BTC realised volatility (last hour) is more than 3× its 7-day average, (4) market liquidity is below $1,000 visible on the entry side of the order book. Also skip if your live 7-day rolling win rate for this strategy drops below 80% — fragile strategies are most vulnerable to regime change.
Bot Logging:
Persist (ts_utc, market_slug, side, trigger_price, trigger_notional, our_$_size, sfs_at_entry, market_final_result, realised_pnl_on_$1, realised_pnl_on_$2) to a CSV. Aggregate weekly: win-rate, avg PnL per entry, max drawdown since live-test start.